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"The stream of Time, irresistible, ever moving, carries off and bears away all things that come to birth and plunges them into utter darkness, both deeds of no account and deeds which are mighty and worthy of commemoration. . .Nevertheless, the science of History is a great bulwark against the stream of Time; in a way it checks this irresistible flood, it holds in a tight grasp whatever it can seize floating on the surface and will not allow it to slip away into the depths of Oblivion. "
- Anna Comnena (1083-1153), The Alexiad
"I have taken all knowledge to be my province."
- Francis Bacon, 1592
Saturday, February 7, 2004
Anchors Away
[Not "aweigh" because most of these are being pitched over the side. You'll see as you read.]
So the dude mentioned in the previous post, Lance Izumi, is a "senior fellow at the Pacific Research Institute for Public Policy". That sounds kewl.
Something along those lines (Fellowship at an Institute) is something I've always thought would be worth aiming for but don't know how to go about it. That or a professorship. Something in an academic setting. People may disagree but my talents and aptitudes are scholarly. My interests certainly are.
I've been letting things anchor me down, from small to large. Some anchors are good - an anchor obviously has a purpose, a positive use. Here's where we get a bit teleological. Yes, I know about a month ago Steven Den Beste, one of my favorite bloggers, castigated the teleological world view and there are certainly reasons to castigate some versions of teleology.
But Aristotleian views aren't all bad. A thing might have a worthy use (a virtue) but for every virtue there are corresponding vices. Being completely unanchored in life is a vice, but so too is using an anchor in place of a life jacket and allowing it to drag you down.
A lot of things have anchored me to my life here over the last several years, some large, some small. Some that I look back on and am glad I stood by someone - though I now wonder if I could have provided as much help, if not more, some other way that would have benefited both. But some that I look back on with regret. One lives life forward, however, not in reverse. Losing that job may end up being the best thing that happened to me, a blessing, because every year that I stayed here was a year that I made no progress towards the life I'd like to have.
This blog has been my contribution to the War on Bad Philosophy, the War of Ideas, and the war we've been aware we're fighting for two and a half years now. A war waged against us for longer but we only began to engage it actively in the wake of 9/11. It's been a contribution that plays to my strengths and I'd like to think that in a country of 280 million people I've been doing my part. It is, after all, a world-wide debate, one that includes a ideological war within the west that is arguably the most important front in this war (aren't they all) because the outcome of this conflict will determine how - even if - we fight the war of ideas against Islamist forces because at stake in the ideological war within the west is our civilizational confidence and understanding & valuing of our virtues (there's that word again).
I'd like to think that in some small way, as part of a spontaneously mobilized intellectual militia (what is the militia? "the whole body of the people, drawn up as an army"), have had some impact. It's not nearly the same as being a field soldier getting shot at by crazed Fedayeen, but it's something.
It's been something, and a contribution that plays to my strengths. But strength is relative, and I have also run up against the limitations of what I could do because of limitations, often self-imposed, on those strengths. I can think pretty well, but need some work organizing my thoughts perhaps. I can write pretty well - or at any rate pretty fast - and have fluency in terms. But also sloppily. I've got to get out of where I am, bite the bullet, and get on with my education - but also have a way to pay for it.
First off, to those who think I'm putting on airs ("contribution to the war"? It's just a blog, dude, get over yourself! And not one of the biggest ones, either): Yah, I know. I'm certainly not saying I'm single-handedly winning the battle of ideas here on Porphyrogenitus.net nor that I will ever be able to do that. But I'm part of a Pack, as Glenn might put it, and have done what I could.
Things have been kind of slipping here, though. A variety of reasons. For one thing, we're arguably in a lull in this - though fall and late summer could be interesting. For another, I haven't really been happy, which comes across in a lot of ways and affects writing and thinking. Blogging has not only been a way to make a contribution but an escape from otherwise not doing what I want to be doing with my life or even getting closer to that. The obstacles in my way are arguably of my own making: I've known what I need to do, but haven't had the energy to do those things because of depression over where I was and how far I was from my goals. Blogging has been a way to do something close to what I want to be doing, which has made it a good hobby among the other things mentioned above: People do things for a variety of reasons (something that those who ask "ok, did we topple Saddam over WMD or for this other reason they're talking about now?" should remember. Both, boss. All). It was and remains something that makes me happy because I've been able to use my aptitudes here in a way that I wasn't able to in the rest of my life here.
Why have I blogged a lot? That's the reason. Why, when I haven't blogged much, has it been at the more obviously trying times for me? Dittoes. For one thing, it makes it hard to think clearly on any subject when you're gloomy. Past posts have expressed my pessimism on this or that topic and usually included a disclaimer that I may just be looking at things pessimistically because I'm a pessimistic person. It hasn't always been that way in my life. Colorado, sitting here festering, moldering away, has not been good for me and this is another problem that is self-reinforcing. The anchors I mention are things I cling to because I've become more worried about losing what I've had than gaining from any venture, including leaving here and pursuing my education. Again, losing my job may be a blessing because I no longer have to worry about what I'd lose in leaving it. It wasn't a bad job but it wasn't how I should be spending my life.
The above may give the impression that this is a "Farewell Adress" post. I do, after all, need to focus on my job & education search: Something that I have been doing, though it's difficult. The mental barriers are the hardest part. (Yes, that and the waiting. Thanks, Tom Petty. Even if you are a Lib). I'm a pretty reserved person. I think that comes across, too. This weblog is a bit "distant" in the bloggosphere: I have direct connections with a rather few people who I am comfortable with but don't venture beyond that much. I'm very confident in talking politics, international relations, stuff like that. Especially on the web but also in group settings. Impersonal stuff. It wasn't always like this, either, but somewhere in my life I became withdrawn and reserved. I've always been somewhat shy but it reached hypertrophy here in Southwest Colorado and the setbacks here.
My main friends are on the web. I left the others behind in Madison (and they've all long since moved on and I lost touch with them). Here I've lived a hermit-like existence. At first it was because I was anchored to the motel. The motel (see bio) was the reason I came out here. The staff consisted of me. My mother owned the motel but worked at Fort Lewis College during the day. I could have gone out at night at least some nights, but with who? From the motel I made some friends over the internet, via ICQ and at Shadowland.org back when that site had some traffic. That's another reason I've spent so much time on the web: the few people I talk to outside of my family are there. So if folks wonder why I'm reluctant to do much autobiographica blogging, it's because my life is obviously less interesting than Glenn's (not even any coffee drinking in my log, much less teaching, and certainly no wives who look fetching in t-shirts).
I have two eyes. One looks forward at how long it will take me to get where I want to be in my life. The other looks back and sees that in the years that have passed since I first started thinking this way I could have gotten where I want to be. But I haven't. Those are dead years in my life and the only thing I have to show for them lives in the archives of this blog, the previous blogspot blog, some links to my posts that some have been kind enough to make, and whatever impact my arguments, thoughts, analysis of events and the like have had on people who read them.
I want to keep blogging. It is after all a venue to express my thoughts and work on refining them and refining how to express them. These are skills I need and I hope that readers will find value in what I post. As I mentioned earlier, though, posting patterns are likely to change. Posting will also likely be less frequent "For the Duration". I'm going to need to work, and to study. But most of those studies will probably be in spheres that will generate some good postage, just as books and articles I've read on my own for zero college credit and thus, while they have increased my own knowledge have not really helped me attain my goal, have often generated some of the better, more thoughtful posts I have made. I'll also be keeping my end up as best I can as part of this "intellectual militia" we have going here. What is the bloggosphere? "The whole body of the citizenry drawn up as a punditry".
"Um, is that a good thing, or a bad thing?" some reader out there is asking his or her self. I guess we'll see. Maybe someone could do a dissertation on the impact of blogs in public policy/international policy debates (oh, and if someone out there reads that and takes the idea, please at least give me proper credit for it. If you're already doing it, then kudos to you). The current plan of action has me finishing my degree while I’m working at being all I can be. Hopefully I’ll also be able to take some graduate-level work and build up a record that'll help me get into a PhD program.
Lance T. Izumi on how high government spending crowds out liberty. Hayek is invoked. Izumi writes:
An expansionist government, even in the pursuit of noble causes, reduces freedom.
Someone who I've come to appreciate more and more over the years Put it best when he said "And I hope we have once again reminded people that man is not free unless government is limited. There's a clear cause and effect here that is as neat and predictable as a law of physics: As government expands, liberty contracts." Well, we need that reminder again. Apparently, so too do many people whose public service was initially inspired by the man speaking those words. Back to Lance Izumi who points out "[t]that's why the current federal spending spree isn't just a budget issue, but a freedom issue."
So, given what I'm saying here, why haven't I blogged about the news a week or so ago that the Prescription Drug Program was, oh yah, going to cost a mite more than initially projected? Well, regular readers know I've been busy and distracted. But the truth is, I did gnash my teeth against that in these pixels. I did it back when it mattered, when the program was being debated in Congress, before it passed. That is, when there was still a sliver of hope that they might reconsider enacting that turkey. They didn't.
I'd love to be able to pat myself on the back and crow about my precognitive abilities for having said that in the end the Prescription Drug Program would cost several multiples of what they were (and are) projecting it will cost now. But it didn't take a genius to know that - these spending programs/entitlements always end up costing much more than they project.
Oxblog has some good links on the developing situation in Iran.
As for me, I'm going on the road looking into something to do with my life and get me out of here. I might post tonight, depending on computer availability. Otherwise there won't be any new posts till late Friday night at the earliest.
Send some birthday wishes to Ronald Reagan and his family. Any flames will show a lack of class on the part of the flamer.
Responding to this post Robert Hill writes, via e-mail, to disagree with my assessment of what happened to California Republicans. He takes note of this section:
They pushed a popular Referendum which passed with significant voter support, 187, but Pete Wilson ended up looking intolerant, as did the entire California Republican Party. So they won that issue at the polls but people didn't look at them the same way. Arguably that was the beginning of the end for California Republicans, who dominated State politics prior to that and collapsed after. They're only just now beginning to recover. . .perhaps.
Robert responds to it as follows:
To which I have to disagree. The CA Republican Party is always getting their tail kicked at the local level. I can't remember if we've ever had a state legislature that was dominated by Republicans in the 16+ years I've been living here. It's always been controlled by the Democrats.
It's true that the State Legislature has been dominated by the likes of Tom Hayden (literally a Red Family Communard in the late '60s/early '70s) and Willie Brown, but the Republicans used to do much better in winning Statewide offices and U.S. Senate seats. Robert goes on:
Pete Wilson was an ineffective, wishy-washy governor, much like Grey Davis. But Both governors owe their successes to the fact that they were superb campaigners. The recent losses at the gubernatorial level by the Republicans in California were due to the California Republican Party, not Prop. 187.
If you look at the California Republican and Democratic parties, you'll note that they are controlled by the extreme fringe of their parties. Just listen to an interview with the CA Democratic Party Chairperson sometime. He is an utter lunatic. Without a Wilson or a Davis at the helm, both parties lost big time to their opponents.
Oh, I know the California Democratic Party is run by its lunatic fringe and the Republican Party in California hasn't seemed much better. But it's telling that the Democrats can win State Legislature offices and even U.S. Senate seats with such candidates (*Ahem* Boxer) but the Republicans cannot. Maybe 187 isn't to blame, but I do think it has something to do with it.
So I think your analysis of CA is wrong and doesn't support your hypothesis that pushing for an anti-gay marriage amendment to the Constitution will hurt Bush's chances at reelection. I hope he won't do it, but I don't see any evidence that it will hurt him much if it does.
It may be that I'm wrong. It's happened before, after all. Readers can decide for themselves and Robert certainly makes some good points.
I will say that Resolution 187 isn't the source of all the problems the California Republicans have, but it may have contributed to them because it ended up being used by their opponents as an example of things people already worried about when it came to Republicans.
The national Republicans aren't without problems either, and the Marriage Amendment could do the same thing. We'll see how it goes, I guess.
Update: Those interested in the debate on Gay Marriage from both sides can check out Mitt Romney's piece in Opinion Journal today.
An allusion to this post where I came out on the subject of Gay Marriage.
Darren Kaplan has a post on the subject of the Massachusetts Supreme Court's ruling today on the subject.
Well, I hope Bush doesn't end up pushing a Marriage Amendment. He probably will, but I won't be a happy camper.
Setting the merits aside as Darren did, and just looking at the politics, I'm not sure the Republicans want to go this route. They should learn from their California experience.
They pushed a popular Referendum which passed with significant voter support, 187, but Pete Wilson ended up looking intolerant, as did the entire California Republican Party. So they won that issue at the polls but people didn't look at them the same way. Arguably that was the beginning of the end for California Republicans, who dominated State politics prior to that and collapsed after. They're only just now beginning to recover. . .perhaps.
Now, on that one I actually think the merits of the Referendum were ok (though I'm not a huge fan of Referenda) - I'm not anti-Immigrant and the Republican office-holders who supported 187 likewise were careful to voice their support for legal immigration. People in the State were against having to pay for abuse of the system by violators of the law. That's why it passed, but Republicans became seen as the Party of intolerance in California as a result.
Unfair? Sure. Life's a biatch. Politics is no more "fair" than anything else in life, and if the national Republicans refuse to learn from the experience of the California Republicans, well they'll have only themselves to blame. I'm not even sure that a Marriage Amendment has the popular support that Referendum 187 did, which makes it even more of a loser as a political issue in my opinion. Especially since people will remember and opinions are shifting slowly but surely on this issue.
I think a Marriage Amendment to the U.S. Constitution is in the Resolution 187 category. Actually, I think it's in the category of a flag-burning amendment. Oh, and if the problem is runaway judges legislating from the bench and ignoring such things as the text of Constitutions - which may not be in play here but is on other issues - then amending the Constitution is hardly going to stop them from ignoring what the Constitution says.
We may as well propose and pass an Amendment saying "Judges shall respect the written Constitution and accept that the Constitution cannot be amended by judicial, executive, or legislative fiat. It can only be amended by the processes provided for within the Constitution itself", but that'll be just another part of the Constitution for them to ignore. The solution is better judges.
The Rocky Mountain News has an editorial supporting the Colorado version of the bill, though arguing for some tweaking. It concludes:
Even with these flaws, HB 1315 has much to commend it. Whether some professors like it or not, for example, lawmakers have every right to ensure public colleges and universities have a grievance procedure to protect students from political zealots who belittle, intimidate or even punish them academically for differing views. Such professors no doubt are a small minority, but they exist.
An academic bill of rights is a worthy goal if it is narrowly focused on political discrimination in the classroom. HB 1315 is a good starting point for such a statute.
This is related to last weekend's post on Cecile DuBois experiences and why such a Academic Bill of Rights is needed.
The RMN also has a piece today on "coming out" as a conservative at the Boulder Campus. My sister went to CU and it's a very Liberal campus - always has been.
Update: Glenn says that he doesn't approve of the Academic Bill of Rights because it takes a page from the petulance of the Left and will be used to silence people.
I hope that's not what will happen. I'd much rather see things opened up: I'm not in favor of silencing the Left, I just don't want conservative or non-Left views silenced in the classroom. There may be a better way of producing such an outcome than the Academic Bill of Rights. At least such proposals will cause us to look for the best solution.
Daniel Arontstein writes via e-mail to remind that stockpiles and even preemption were irrelevant when it came to the Iraq war, echoing Wes Clark before he became politically ambitious. Daniel points to the text of Resolution 687 and 1441 and points out that:
1 - UNSCR # 687 was principle resolution which set out the terms and conditions for the ceasefire of the 1991 war.
2 - The ISG and others have already proven beyond any reasonable doubt - and to a moral certitude - that Iraq was in flagrant violation of UNSCR # 687 and UNSCR # 1441; therefore a casus belli existed.
This is the entire legal and moral justification for the war. This is true regardless of whether, or not, we ever discover any large stockpiles of WMD. As such, the War in 2003 is not, nor was it ever "preemptive".
On Jauary 28th, 2004, CNN reported that David Kay - in sworn testimony said the following:
In my judgment, based on the work that has been done to this point of the Iraq Survey Group, and in fact, that I reported to you in October, Iraq was in clear violation of the terms of [U.N.] Resolution 1441. Resolution 1441 required that Iraq report all of its activities -- one last chance to come clean about what it had. We have discovered hundreds of cases, based on both documents, physical evidence and the testimony of Iraqis, of activities that were prohibited under the initial U.N. Resolution 687 and that should have been reported under 1441, with Iraqi testimony that not only did they not tell the U.N. about this, they were instructed not to do it and they hid material.
The provisions of UNSCR # 687 which were irrefutably defied or broken were:
8. Decides that Iraq shall unconditionally accept the destruction, removal, or rendering harmless, under international supervision, of:
(a) All chemical and biological weapons and all stocks of agents and all related subsystems and components and all research, development, support and manufacturing facilities;
(b) All ballistic missiles with a range greater than 150 kilometres and related major parts, and repair and production facilities; . .
12. Decides that Iraq shall unconditionally agree not to acquire or develop nuclear weapons or nuclear-weapons-usable material or any subsystems or components or any research, development, support or manufacturing facilities related to the above;
Several provisions of UNSCR # 1441 were violated, too. It should be reiterated that Nowhere in UNSCR # 1441- that is to say not once - does it mention that "large stockpiles" of WMD are the only concern the, the major concern, or even the central concern. In fact, the sixth (6th) paragraph specifically states that any and all WMD activity is specifically prohibited:
Deploring the fact that Iraq has not provided an accurate, full, final, and complete disclosure, as required by resolution 687 (1991), of all aspects of its programmes to develop weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles with a range greater than one hundred and fifty kilometres, and of all holdings of such weapons, their components and production facilities and locations, as well as all other nuclear programmes, including any which it claims are for purposes not related to nuclear-weapons-usable material.
The facts are incontrovertible: UNSCR # 1441 & 687 were violated. Resumption of war was therefore right and necessary. WHY?! Because for international order and peace to flourish, despots, tyrants and genocidal terrorists must know that violating our laws, our UNSCR resolutions, and our treaties has very serious consequences - consequences they shouldn't risk, because they won't survive them.
As mentor and informal adviser to some top U.S. officials, Mr. Lewis has helped coax the White House to shed decades of thinking about Arab regimes and the use of military power. Gone is the notion that U.S. policy in the oil-rich region should promote stability above all, even if it means taking tyrants as friends. Also gone is the corollary notion that fostering democratic values in these lands risks destabilizing them. Instead, the Lewis Doctrine says fostering Mideast democracy is not only wise but imperative.
After Sept. 11, 2001, as policy makers fretted urgently about how to understand and deal with the new enemy, Mr. Lewis helped provide an answer. If his prescription is right, the U.S. may be able to blunt terrorism and stabilize a region that, as the chief exporter of oil, powers the industrial world and underpins the U.S.-led economic order. If it's wrong, as his critics contend, America risks provoking sharper conflicts that spark more terrorism and undermine energy security. . .
A faction led by political strategist Karl Rove believed soul-searching over "why Muslims hate us" was misplaced, Mr. Frum says. Mr. Rove summoned Mr. Lewis to address some White House staffers, military aides and staff members of the National Security Council. The historian recited the modern failures of Arab and Muslim societies and argued that anti-Americanism stemmed from their own inadequacies, not America's. Mr. Lewis also met privately with Mr. Bush's national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice. Mr. Frum says he soon noticed Mr. Bush carrying a marked-up article by Mr. Lewis among his briefing papers. A White House spokesman declined to comment.
Says Mr. Frum: "Bernard comes with a very powerful explanation for why 9/11 happened. Once you understand it, the policy presents itself afterward."
Check out the whole piece.
Update: Helps to include the link. Fixed that, sorry.
Ralph Peters writes on the bombings in Kurdish Iraq as an attack on freedom and a desecration of faith:
Terrorists who pervert their religion to justify atrocities aren't waging holy war. Islam doesn't permit the slaughter of the innocent. And the Koran certainly doesn't advocate murdering fellow Muslims.
Yet the bombers in Irbil attacked during celebrations of the Muslim festival of Eid. Doubtless, they convinced themselves with a few twists of logic that they were doing a blessed deed - the human beast can rationalize anything.
But consider the act: The bombers used the generous traditions of the Eid holiday to penetrate celebrations open to all - and the killers reportedly entered dressed as mullahs.
Imagine if Christian extremists dressed as priests exploded suicide bombs on Easter Sunday - to drive us back to 13th-century intolerance.
These bombers didn't sacrifice their lives for their faith. They blasphemed horrendously against it. Even if their organization proves to have secular aims, the killers insulted not only the faith of the majority of Iraqis - Sunni or Shi'a - but the fundamental values of civilization.
Amir Tahiri argues that chaos in Iraq is progress. Given the examples he uses - a diverse array of political positions being asserted - I'd have to agree with him. I've written a number of times that it would be more of a problem if opinion were monolithic. Of course, this can be carried too far: fragmentation wouldn't, in my opinion, be a good idea. Some - like Peters - argue that the formation of a Kurdish state for the Kurdish nation would be a good thing, but I think it would likely result in misery for the Kurds who would then be surrounded by nations who loathe the idea of a Kurdish state and would seek to thwart it. In any case, I agree with Tahiri, who writes that:
The truth is that, far from sliding into chaos or heading towards civil war, Iraq is beginning to become a normal society. And all normal societies, as de Villepin might acknowledge, face uncertainties, just as do all normal human beings.
One should welcome the gradual emergence of a normal political life in Iraq after nearly half a century of brutal despotism, including 35 years of exceptionally murderous Ba'athist rule.
The central aim of the war in Iraq, as far as I am concerned, was to create conditions in which Shi'ites can demonstrate without being machine-gunned in the streets of Baghdad and Basra, while the Kurds are able to call for autonomy without being gassed by the thousands.
It is good that Grand Ayatollah Ali-Muhammad Sistani can issue fatwas, as he never could have under Saddam. It is even better that those who disagree with the grand ayatollah can say so without being murdered by zealots.
Exactly. Another sign of normalization is the establishment of a new Iraq Stock Exchange. An organized system of legal property rights would be even better, but hopefully that will come in time.
John Podhoretz writes on Saddam's threat, making the following argument:
The preemption doctrine wasn't and isn't about a current threat posed to the United States. The preemption doctrine deals with looming threats. It deals with future capabilities that enemies of the United States might conceivably possess. In the case of Saddam Hussein, it had to do with what he might have been able to do later on this decade.
According to preemption doctrine, in fact, America was presented with an opportunity in Iraq to prevent precisely what has happened in North Korea - to wage war to prevent a dangerous rogue nation from fully developing the kinds of weapons of mass destruction that give it the power to menace, threaten and blackmail the world. We believed he had WMDs, but not in such a quantity or in such a way as to pose an immediate threat to millions and millions of Americans.
I'll have more on this theme in a post that I hope to have up later. In any case, Podhoretz makes an argument that should be somewhat familiar to readers of this site.
One might note the number of New York Post pieces linked to in this post. Their columnists are paying close attention to Iraq and in my opinion the Post's pages are an example of how the War of Ideas should be fought at home. They also have an editorial on the wider war titled "Winds of War". Has their editorial staff been reading Winds of Change by any chance? Of course it could be that they've just been reading Herman Wouk, but. . .
Speaking of which, if you haven't read this post by Armed Liberal, you should go read it now.
Reformist Party to boycott elections as not being fair & free. Hopefully it's moving towards a political crisis that will ultimately result in the peaceful or near-peaceful (not too bloody) deposing of the Mullahs and replacement with a true representative democratic system.
No one has articulated a more far-sighted vision of engagement with the Middle East than President Bush. In November, he outlined a "forward strategy of freedom" aimed at fostering democracies throughout the Muslim world. He acknowledged that "this strategy requires the same persistence and energy and idealism we have shown before."
But for all Bush's sweeping rhetoric, the White House seems to shrink from mounting an intellectual defense of its policies in the region. It shuns Al Jazeera and other Arab media, botches the effort to get a credible Iraqi television station going, and ignores innovative recommendations for reorganizing its public diplomacy. Given the challenges we face in realizing the president's vision, this is the time to rebuild a bipartisan consensus from which to wage a more effective battle of ideas.
Earlier in the piece Ginsberg praised much of the American effort there, including by Tony Snow and Bill Clinton. But the Bush Administration was a no-show at the event, apparently for small reasons. One has to have a sense of the important and not cut off one's nose to spite one's face and cancel out on participating just because WJC is there.
I've raised the old "politics stop at the water's edge" phrase, usually as a rejoinder/admonishment to something the Democrats are doing for political reasons at home. This time it's the Bush Administration that seems to have put political pique ahead of America's interest. At least others, including the Boy Clinton, were there to pick up the slack.
I've written before about rather wealthy Democratic politicians acting as if they're the vanguard of the proletarian revolution. The whole thing is getting more attention now, especially with the husband of a heiress and the standard-bearer of the disadvantaged trial lawyer community bringing it up on the campaign stump on a continual basis.
William Tucker has a piece on the disaffected rich in the American Spectator today that helps explain the phenomenon:
By most estimates, Edwards' personal fortune now stands somewhere between $15 million and $70 million.
So what does he do? Does Edwards celebrate the fluid American society that allows talented people from humble beginnings to rise to the top? No, he's more concerned with those still above him. Just estimating, I'd say Edwards is in the 98th percentile of personal wealth right now. But it's that 2 percent that are still above him who are having all the fun. They are "The Establishment." And Edwards, of course, is a LIFAE - a Leader in the Fight Against the Establishment.
FOR HIS CAMPAIGN THEME Edwards has adopted "The Two Americas." Some people would say there is only one America, others would say there are a hundred. But two is a nice number because it allows people to be divided into "us" and "them."
But of course, if done by the right people - these people - it isn't "divisive" to do this. Only those who dissent from this way of portraying America can be termed divisive for refusing to unquestioningly agree:
AMERICA IS NOT A NATION divided by rich and poor. The real malaise in this country is middle-class anxiety. I was talking with a Brazilian woman the other day and she told me how much easier it is to live with a professional income in that still-developing country. "You can hire servants, you don't have other people crowding in on you, you can have just about anything you want." That's the problem.
Alexis de Tocqueville predicted all this long ago but it's worth trotting out those old quotes: "When all the privileges of birth and fortune are abolished, when all professions are accessible to all, a man's own energies may place him at the top of any one of them…. [Yet] however democratic the social state and political constitution may be, it is certain that every member of the community will always find out several points about him which overlook his own position and we may foresee that his looks will be doggedly fixed in that direction…. To these causes must be attributed that strange melancholy which often haunts the inhabitants of democratic countries in the midst of their abundance."
To see the fallacy of Edwards' populism, just imagine him making the same address to the rest of the world. Who is it that is "doing just fine" and "gets whatever they want whenever they want." It is America, of course, where the number-one health problem among poor people is obesity. Would redistributing America's wealth to the rest of the world make everyone rich and happy? Of course not. Wealth depends on what you can do, not what you have in the bank.
Tonight's a Democratic night with the Super Tuesday Primaries, but here's a little counter-programing in the form of a piece on whether or not they hand out Harvard MBAs to simpletons. Key section:
Having attended Harvard Business School at the same time as the President, graduating from the two-year program a year after he did, and then serving on its faculty after a year’s interval spent writing a PhD thesis, I am intimately familiar with the rigors of the program at the time, and the miniscule degree of slack cut for even the most well-connected students, when their performance did not make the grade.
There is simply no way on earth that the son of the then-Ambassador to China, or anyone else, could have coasted through Harvard Business School with a “gentleman’s C.” I never, ever heard of a case of an incompetent student being allowed to graduate, simply because a certain family was prominent. On the contrary, I did hear stories of well-born students having to leave prior to graduation. The academic standards were a point of considerable pride.
Anyhow, some still doubt, or feigh doubt, about George W. Bush's intelligence, as they once did with Ronald Reagan and before that with Eisenhower.
Well, Joe Lieberman goes out as a class act. A generous speech.
I'm 50-50. Last week in Instapundit comments I said that Kerry had a 50% chance of winning South Carolina, and I bet that he would win it. He didn't.
On the other hand though when Andrew Sullivan said Al Sharpton was going for, and going to get, the "Jesse Jackson" role in Democratic politics, I said I didn't think so. On that one, I was right. Sharpton doesn't have and never will have the broad support within the Black population that Jackson had. He's a pretender, even a poseur.
I shoulda blogged this earlier, but it got lost in the shuffle. It's another article that Trent Telenko gave the heads-up on. In his mail pointing to the piece, Trent wrote:
What I find interesting is we have a US government bureaucracy acting faster, more effectively and more efficiently than the NGOs who supposedly specialize in this kind of work.
Here's the piece itself, detailing the Agency for International Development's efforts in Iraq:
"It's no accident that OTI was in Fallujah, one of the most difficult places in Iraq for Americans to work. Sometimes known as the "Marines of AID," OTI staffers often are the first development workers on the ground in countries that have just emerged from war or prolonged political conflict. In East Timor, after the Indonesian military leveled the capital city of Dili in the summer of 1999, OTI set up its office in a couple of shipping containers. OTI specializes in highly visible, explicitly political development - support for free media, grants to women's groups and the like - intended to nudge fledgling governments toward democracy and stability. Created in 1994, the office is the brainchild of former AID Administrator J. Brian Atwood, who believed the existing AID bureaucracy, with its focus on long-term development, was ill-equipped to help countries in the pivotal days after a conflict. Where AID missions can take two years to get started in a country, Atwood wanted OTI to begin operations almost overnight. He persuaded Congress to give it "notwithstanding authority," a powerful clause in the 1961 Foreign Assistance Act that allows the office to bypass normal rules for procurement and hiring.
OTI accomplishes its work through small grants to host-country groups. Many grants are worth $100,000 or less (the cap on an OTI grant is $250,000). OTI tries to select grantees the way a venture capitalist picks promising companies, but instead of fledgling firms, the office funds nascent organizations that show potential to support democracy. In the early stages of a program, grants generally are awarded without competition. Of the 436 grants OTI had issued through Nov. 24 in Iraq, none was competitively awarded."
Another good section:
In Iraq, OTI's ability to move money quickly has endeared it to the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). The authority turned to OTI to refurbish government ministries ransacked by looters after Baghdad fell in April. "They're very effective in supporting CPA objectives," says a senior government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "CPA loves [them]for that." Iraq is uncharted territory for OTI. In size and political significance, Iraq dwarfs the agency's previous programs. What's more, OTI is just one of many agencies and contractors rebuilding Iraq under the aegis of the provisional authority. Some observers question where OTI fits in the effort. For example, OTI can renovate Iraqi schools. But so can Army civil affairs officers; Bechtel Corp.; Research Triangle Institute, a North Carolina firm doing local governance work under a $170 million contract with AID; and five nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that are administering AID's community action program. The grassroots civil society effort is modeled on an old OTI program in Macedonia. "It's not really clear what exactly OTI's niche is, because first of all you have the civil affairs teams of the military that are doing a lot of the work that OTI normally would do," says Marina Ottaway, a scholar with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. "In Iraq the situation is extremely confusing because there are far too many actors."
Spoken like a functionary. In this case - and in many others, I suspect - it's better to have "too many" people working on things than putting it all in one organization's hands. But I wouldn't expect someone working for Carnegie to get that.
Banging the drum slowly, or at least regularly on this topic. Bruce Berkowitz argues that we collected a little and assumed a lot in our intelligence efforts:
But when combined with our inability to crack Iraqi secrecy, these hibernating programs and Iraq's past behavior gave the impression of a much bigger and more successful clandestine effort. When U.S. intelligence spotted an illegal sale, hidden transaction or remnant of a program that had been shelved, our analysts concluded -- correctly -- that Iraq still planned to develop the weapons.
Again, the correct assumption was that Saddam always planned to produce these weapons. The ambitions, and thus the danger, continued. He remained in violation and his intentions never altered. The piece continues:
It did not help matters that U.S. intelligence had underestimated Iraq's nuclear programs in the early 1980s and '90s. Analysts -- lacking hard information -- concluded the worst. Indeed, nearly everyone was taken in -- officials in both the Clinton and Bush administrations, our British allies, and even French and U.N. officials. Almost no one denied that the Iraqis were hiding something. The question was always what to do about it, and when.
The ultimate irony was that Saddam Hussein -- who might have put all questions to rest -- was so intent on maintaining his power at home and his stature abroad that he could never let inspectors discover for themselves that his weapons programs had been shelved. He is now paying the price for what appears to have been a colossal bluff.
That's a price he should pay, because it wasn't quite "only a bluff". Shelved is not the same as terminated. He was supposed to give up his WMD programs, not wait until attention abated and sanctions were lifted to then resume business as usual. Never the less, intelligence remains a problem and I agree with this:
This problem will likely get worse. Not only is it hard to detect chemical and biological facilities, even nuclear weapons programs today have a small "footprint." Where the Manhattan Project required the equivalent of small cities, more recent programs, such as the one South Africa ran in the 1980s and Pakistan built in the 1990s, require only a few large buildings. Much of the North Korean program appears to be hidden in caves, and until recently we knew little of the Iranian and Libyan programs -- which ran for decades.
That's why we need to focus even harder on improving collection and on understanding the true limits of our information at any given moment. Even the best analyst can't make intelligence out of whole cloth.
Improving collection should be a high priority. It's something that was neglected during the '90s and indeed the early oughts (that's this decade, folks). But clearly coasting along isn't working.
Gary Schmitt argues that our basic instincts were sound however. But he also fingers a gap in intelligence and argues that overall we should be more concerned, not less, about weapons programs:
One result of this missed estimate of the Iraqi threat has been calls for the administration to rethink not only its assessment of the threat posed by the combination of weapons proliferation, rogue states and global terrorism but also the possibility of taking preemptive military action to address this threat. Can the U.S. employ such an option, with all the political and strategic risks it entails, when the intelligence it rests on seems so shaky?
The answer is not so clear. Although it appears the intelligence community overestimated the WMD threat posed by Hussein's Iraq, it is equally true that U.S. intelligence recently underestimated the nuclear weapons programs of two other rogue states, Iran and Libya. Both countries had programs further along and more sophisticated than either the U.S. or its allies knew. Based on these three cases — and a history of previously underestimating WMD programs in Pakistan, India, North Korea and, yes, Iraq — the lack of solid intelligence may mean we have more to worry about in the future, not less. What is becoming clear as we unravel both the Iranian and Libyan programs, with their webs of covert foreign suppliers, is how difficult it is to contain proliferation. It is premature to think that military preemption can be taken off the table completely.
This is quite different from what Andrew Sullivan, for example, has been saying recently. Schmitt agrees that intelligence needs to be reformed. But he goes on, soundly, asserting that:
Our next goal, however, should be to understand that what we lack in detailed intelligence about weapons programs is more than offset by our strategic intelligence about particular countries' intent. We knew, for example, that North Korea had every intention of using its "peaceful" nuclear program to get a nuclear weapon as far back as the first Bush administration. We had similar insights into Pakistan's nuclear program, Iran's, South Africa's, South Korea's, Taiwan's and a host of other countries' ballistic missile and WMD programs. In some cases, we had the will to head off these efforts; in other cases, we didn't. Yet the decision not to act was rarely, if ever, because we didn't understand a country's intentions.
I think this is an important observation and something that should be argued whenever this matter comes up. Intelligence was wrong in the details, in some cases overestimating progress countries had made on their programs, in other cases underestimating it. But their goals and intentions were known, and in the end this, not exact quantities of this or that on hand or how close or far they are to completion of a program, is the most important thing. As I said a number of times in the run up to the war, it's not actually possible to precisely calibrate how close someone is to producing a nuclear bomb. Six month, six year, six decade estimates are just that, and our response shouldn't be based on timing anymore than it is wise to base an investment strategy on trying to time the market. When you know what they're up to, you should base your strategy on that, and nipping it in the bud as soon as possible. One can never tell when such countries can get a sudden windfall that advances their programs significantly. The downside risk is not in acting too soon, but in waiting too long. Too many people seem to operate under the unstated assumption that the reverse is true.
Finally, Michael Ledeen isn't quite ready to say the intel was wrong yet. I'm not sure I'm convinced by his piece, but I will say that I'm not convinced yet that there is nothing to find or that nothing was sent into Syria or Lebanon. Intelligence can be wrong after the fact as well as before the fact. We are now in some danger of coming to conclusions based on as yet incomplete information in much the same way that we are admonished was the failing in the pre-war assessments. And now we've come full circle to where this post started.
well, I've gone and done it. I've added advertisements to the site. I ran it purely for fun at my own expense for some time and didn't believe in festooning it with lots of stuff. But regular readers will know that my financial circumstances, not so hot to begin with, have entered an even less certain period. I'm hoping that the site will pay for itself. Of course, it'd be great if it turned a profit. Unlike those selfless hippies who run progressive blogs and believe the profit motive is dirty - except when indulged in by people such as themselves - I have nothing against the free market.
But I'll be happy if it just becomes self-supporting.
I also want to thank my readers for their continued patronage. I'll try to keep up with posting. I doubt I'll be making as many posts as in the past, and they may not be put up at the old familar times. But I'll endevor to maintain the quality or even improve it. Thanks again for all your support.
As I blogged this weekend, pre-war intelligence was not slanted. But it doesn't seem accurate, either. Even if we end up finding Iraq's WMD somewhere (Syria, Syria's satrapy Lebanon), it's still a problem. I posted last week a piece in the Christian Science Monitor that also points out that the intelligence community underestimated Libya's WMD programs, and asked "just what are we getting for our intelligence dollars?"
I'm certain that the people in our intelligence agencies work hard to get things right. But clearly something is wrong, possibly with how intelligence is gathered and quite possibly related to the restrictions that they had to operate under and in some cases still do. I think those of us who want an aggressive prosecution of the war should be concerned about the accuracy of the intelligence. Intelligence is going to determine in large measure where we want to focus our efforts. Critics of the war may find reason to crow in this, but we should be relieved that Bush is finally supporting an inquiry into intelligence. Something like this probably should have been done after 9/11 and is overdo now.
This is also one area where Bush's proposed spending increases should be supported. Obviously we need to devote more to intelligence. But I would say that money isn't the only answer. As with education, methods matter more and no amount of money spent in the wrong ways will produce results.
The president's plan for the 2005 budget year, which begins next Oct. 1, proposes spending $2.4 trillion for all government activities, up 3.5 percent from the current year. Revenues will total $2.04 trillion, a sizable 13.2 percent increase that the administration forecasts will occur from growing tax receipts powered by a stronger economy.
At least it does propose some cuts:
To battle the soaring deficits, Bush proposed squeezing scores of government programs and sought outright spending cuts in seven of 15 Cabinet-level agencies. The Agriculture Department and the Environmental Protection Agency were targeted for the biggest reductions.
But in an election year I have to wonder how well they'll stick to making cuts in politically sensitive areas like Agriculture & the EPA. My guess is that, as usual, actual spending will go nowhere but up from this baseline proposal. Of course it has to, since it does not include funding for operations in Afghanistan & Iraq.
I'd like to extend my gratitude to all the people who wrote with their support and encouragement in my job search, and offers of help.
One such person suggested I post my curriculum Vitae. I have posted a resume at Monster.
I studied for six years at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, majoring in History & Political Science, emphasizing International Relations, Political Economy, and Defense policy. I have also done course work in philosophy and economics. My strengths are not in higher math, but I am an analytical thinker and fast learner, including on technical subjects. I'm internet savvy and realistic about pay. I'm a decent writer. Blog posts provide some examples of that but I realize that blogging is different from other forms of writing and I understand the editing process.
Two Great Teams Going For a Championship Only One Could Win
As John Facenda once said for NFL Films. I would have preferred the Packers being there and winning (not being there and losing, natch), but we had a good Super Bowl with two decent teams.
Not that I dislike the Pats - I don't mind them winning - but my heart was with Carolina and especially Sam Mills.
I think the ending of the game proves that the Super Bowl is cursed to never have OT. (Now watch: next year's game will go to OT. If it does, as long as the Pack wins, I'll be happy).
Thus ends the ~month long period that was once my favorite month, running from late December to Late January. Winter break in Uni starting with Christmas with my mother and sister and then several weeks of evening work and watching Super Bowl Memories in my free time in the run up to the big game - I'm an oddity I guess, because somehow it was NFL Films that generated my interest in football, not the other way around (interest in football leading to interest in NFL Films) as for most people. Super Bowl Week on ESPN, interviews, the Commissioner's "State of the League" speech, I watched it all like a junky: once classes had started, I'd tape stuff or just, well, miss a class that last week. I got into the build up more than I got into the game. This was the early '90s, remember and blow-outs were de rigur (though the first game of this era I'm talking about was the Bills-Giants classic). My own earliest Super Bowl memory was when I was a pre-teen squab: the great Steelers-Rams game in Super Bowl XIV. For the longest time thereafter for some reason I associated "Swann" with "The Rams" in a bizarre synapse error (hey, I said I was young). I missed most of the games in the '80s due to lack of interest in football through that period, though I did see Doug Williams crush the Broncos. Only in retrospect was I able to appreciate just how well he played in that game (Super Bowl XXII) - at the time I didn't have enough football knowledge to know. Only after watching NFL Films Super Bowl Memories and getting up to speed by watching Jaws & the gang on Edge NFL Matchup did I come to understand how awesome a second quarter Doug Williams really had. And I saw Super Bowl XXV and got hooked, and the month before the Super Bowl became a sort of festival for me while I was in Uni. If you haven't seen those old NFL Films classics, you're missing out. Even if you don't like football, they're documentary work at its best. Of course I like I and II because the Pack kicks it, but from III with the guarantee and the drama of the upset and Earl Morall missing Orr on the flea flicker and Johnny Unitas being put in by Don Shula to try a late comeback, NFL Films found its dramatic voice, through about XXV, they're just superb. The writing, the narration (especially when done by John Facenda), the music of Sam Spence, the clips ("Just keep matriculating the ball down the field, boys" - Hank Stram) they're just wonderful productions. I got hooked on them, I don't even remember how, and then on the game itself.
That's all years in the past, though. It hits me harder this year because this particular month has been a low of sorts. Well, the game was enjoyable to watch and I'm looking to the future: lookin' up.
here is a good example of why the Academic Bill of Rights is needed. Read Cecile's whole post detailing the ridicule and abuse she was subjected to for expressing her opinion in class discussion when it was asked of her. Crushing of dissent indeed.
Reform MPs are showing some fight, resigning and doing so with some rhetorical fire:
In a speech on behalf of fellow lawmakers - carried live on state radio - Mohsen Mirdamadi spoke of an "ugly body of dictatorship" in Iran.
Iran's political system has tetered on the brink of political crisis as disgust with the Ayatollahs who dominate the Guardian Council has grown. Last summer's protests seemed for a time like they might precipitate change, now there is this. I wouldn't think it can go on like this much longer.
First, the bad as terror bombings continue, this time striking Kurdish political parties in Northern Iraq.
Next, the ugly - Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani invoking the 1920 revolt in his call for elections. The flirtation with inflammatory rhetoric is hardly helpful. Check out the whole piece though, which is rather long, for some insight into Sistani. The picture it draws is somewhat different from Kenneth Pollack's take in the piece I discussed here. Which is closer to the real Sistani? I guess we'll see.
Lastly, the Good. This piece by Paul Wolfowitz on women in Iraq, referencing a Woman's Rights Center in a Shiite town in Iraq. If nothing else, by implication Sistani isn't standing in the way of such developments.
As has been the case throughout, the picture remains mixed. It's hard to tell how things are going from here. The continued violence shows that the other side in this war knows the stakes and are desperate to insure we fail. Targeting the Kurds in Northern Iraq is a way of displaying their reach. Every weekend seems to include at least one major attack, with smaller-scale attacks throughout the week. They don't seem to be abating as much in the wake of Saddam's capture as some of us initially hoped they might. The solution, of course, is to KBO: Keep Buggering On, remain focused, and continue to develop the intelligence and innovative tactics to go after those who are behind the attacks.
We'll also have to hope that Sistani is a reasonable man willing to compromise. That highlights once again that some things are beyond our ability to determine. I do still believe that, based on his past behavior, Sistani will ultimately accept a reasonable compromise. If so, it'll be a good sign. A tightrope is being walked here: On the one hand, Iraqis that are too submissive and do not speak up for their interests wouldn't be fertile ground for representative government, but intransigence is also a bad thing. Thus far from everything I've read the vast majority of Iraqis are speaking their mind but also patient and willing to compromise. The real trouble remains the ongoing low-level but endemic attacks by a small but committed proportion of the population supplemented by foreign jihadits.